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Equipment Finance Outlook 2027: Large-Ticket and Middle-Market

A 2027 outlook for large-ticket and middle-market equipment lenders: where demand is coming from, what money will cost, how credit is holding up, who you will compete with, and the risks to watch.

By Alek Perak · Published

Isometric green line drawing of a large gas turbine generator in cutaway with its rotor and combustor exposed, coupled to two stacked grid-patterned equipment units on a long skid base

In short

No official 2027 forecast exists yet, but the inputs point one way. Large-ticket demand holds up but narrows to data centers, power generation and tight aircraft and rail fleets, while money stays expensive: the Fed's September projections show no net rate cuts in 2027. Banks and new private credit platforms are chasing the same middle-market and large-ticket deals, so origination timing will decide share.

Large-ticket equipment finance goes into 2027 with strong demand, clean credit and expensive money. Large ticket was the industry's fastest-growing segment in 2025, up 19.9% according to ELFA's Survey of Equipment Finance Activity, and 2026 is on track for a record year. In our view, the constraint for 2027 isn't borrower demand or credit appetite. It's cost of funds, which the Fed's own projections show staying high through 2027, and competition, as banks book record volume and new private credit platforms target the same middle-market and large-ticket deals.

This outlook pulls together what the data says for lenders whose average deal runs from the middle market up through large ticket: where demand is coming from, what money will cost, how credit is holding up, who you'll be competing with, and what could go wrong.

Last updated: October 18, 2026. Several releases land in the next two weeks: the September CapEx Finance Index (October 27), the Fed's October decision (October 28), third-quarter GDP (October 29), and third-quarter results from Meta, Microsoft and Amazon (October 21 to 29). ELFA's annual economic outlook for 2027 usually arrives in mid-December. This page gets updated as they come out.

In short

  • 2026 is a record year: ELFA forecasts $137.7 billion in new business volume among its CapEx Finance Index respondents, the highest since the survey began in 2006. Volume was up 17.3% year to date through August.
  • Large ticket led 2025: new business volume grew 19.9% in large ticket, against 5.4% in small ticket and 5.3% in middle ticket.
  • Rates aren't coming down: the Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16. Its median projection has the rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.09% on October 16.
  • Credit is clean: delinquency was 1.8% in August, and losses were 0.44%, their lowest in ten months.
  • Demand is concentrated: data center construction ran at an $85.0 billion annual rate in August, up 73% from a year earlier. Power construction was up 8.5%. Manufacturing construction was down 19.2%.
  • Competition is rising: banks booked a record $6.0 billion in August, and at least four private credit-backed platforms launched since 2024 target deals between $3 million and $200 million.
  • The risks are energy, rates and policy: the Strait of Hormuz disruption is ongoing, diesel is up 69% from a year ago, and federal highway funding authority runs only through December 11, 2026.

What will 2027 look like for large-ticket equipment finance?

The Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) hasn't published a 2027 volume forecast yet. Its annual outlook usually comes out in mid-December, and its August quarterly update doesn't include one. What exists is a set of inputs that mostly point the same way.

Our read, based on the data below:

  • Demand holds up, but it's narrow. The strongest large-ticket demand sits in AI infrastructure, power generation and transmission, and transport fleets that are short of capacity. Greenfield manufacturing and private commercial construction are weak: private commercial construction was down 5.4% year over year in August.
  • Volume growth slows from 2026's pace. 2026 includes a one-off July surge that ELFA tied to AI spending. ELFA's full-year forecast implies growth of roughly 15% over 2025, and repeating that is a high bar.
  • Spreads come under pressure. Funding costs fell in 2025 and spreads widened. The Fed's September hike and a 10-year yield above 5% reverse that, while more lenders compete on the cleanest credits.
  • Share goes to whoever gets in first. With credit appetite this broad, the lender who is in the conversation before the borrower runs a competitive process has the edge.

How did large-ticket equipment finance perform in 2025 and 2026?

ELFA's Survey of Equipment Finance Activity (SEFA), released October 14, 2026, covers nearly 100 companies and is administered by PwC. It's the best public source on growth by deal size.

Segment New business volume growth, 2024 New business volume growth, 2025
Small ticket +6.2% +5.4%
Middle ticket +2.5% +5.3%
Large ticket +1.4% +19.9%
All respondents +3.1% +6.8%

Source: ELFA 2025 and 2026 Survey of Equipment Finance Activity. ELFA's confidence survey defines large ticket as an average transaction above $5 million and middle ticket as $250,000 to $5 million.

Large ticket went from the slowest-growing segment in 2024 to the fastest by a wide margin in 2025. By lender type, independents grew 17.0%, banks 8.7%, and captives were flat at -0.1%.

The economics improved too. SEFA respondents reported a pre-tax yield of 7.39%, roughly unchanged, while cost of funds fell 41 basis points to 4.40%. That widened the pre-tax spread by 40 basis points to 2.99%. Net losses were 52 basis points of average receivables, and return on equity rose to 12.0% from 7.9%.

2026 has run hotter still. ELFA's monthly CapEx Finance Index shows volume up 17.3% year to date through August, including a record $14.3 billion in July. August came in at $11.8 billion, the second-highest month on record. Banks booked $6.0 billion in August, their highest month ever. Our monthly market data tracker has the full month-by-month series.

Two cautions on these numbers. First, ELFA doesn't publish a monthly large-ticket series, so there's no 2026 large-ticket figure yet. Second, the surveys use different panels: the CapEx Finance Index showed 2025 volume down 0.5%, while SEFA showed it up 6.8%. Use each for direction within its own panel, not as interchangeable totals.

Where will large-ticket demand come from in 2027?

End market Latest reading 2027 direction
AI and data centers Construction at an $85.0B annual rate in August 2026, up 73% year over year Strong; Microsoft and Amazon point to more in 2027
Power generation Gas turbine backlogs of 53 GW (GE Vernova), nearly 70 GW (Siemens Energy), 35 GW (Mitsubishi) Strong; delivery slots sold years ahead
Manufacturing ISM PMI 54.5 in September, ninth month of expansion; plant construction down 19.2% Equipment yes, new plants no
Trucking EPA 2027 emissions rules apply to model year 2027 engines; FTR says the pre-buy is complete Soft early 2027; diesel squeezes carriers
Rail GATX North American fleet utilization 98.0% in Q2 2026 Tight fleet, slowing lease rate gains
Aircraft About 150 aircraft stored at lessors, down from almost 700 in early 2022 Tight; deliveries still behind
Highway and public works Public highway construction up 4.4%; federal authority extended only to December 11, 2026 Depends on Congress

AI and data centers

Census Bureau data puts private data center construction at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $84.95 billion in August 2026, up from $49.05 billion a year earlier. The Bureau of Economic Analysis says real equipment investment grew at a 13.4% annual rate in the second quarter of 2026, after 15.5% in the first.

Two of the largest buyers point to more in 2027. Microsoft's CFO said fiscal 2027 capital expenditures will grow year over year. Amazon's CEO said AWS's capacity shortfall against demand will also be true in 2027, and AWS plans to double its power capacity by the end of 2027 compared with 2025. Meta guided 2026 capital expenditures to $130 billion to $145 billion, said it is investing in 2027 as well, and said it will evaluate all financing options for 2027.

Much of that hardware goes on hyperscaler balance sheets, but not all of it. GPU loans now make up roughly 15% of the collateral in a Stonebriar equipment ABS and about 20% in Wingspire's latest deal, according to Bloomberg. Wingspire also provided $140 million to a private equity-backed GPU cloud provider in August. For most large-ticket lenders, in our view, the bigger opportunity sits in the supply chain around the buildings: electrical, mechanical and cooling contractors, crane and rigging, and power equipment. Our data center subcontractor guide covers who they are.

Power generation

In our view, power is the most locked-in demand story for 2027. GE Vernova's gas turbine backlog grew to 53 GW in the second quarter of 2026, and the company expects most of its 2030 production slots to be sold this year. It also said first-half 2026 orders were priced more than 20% above fourth-quarter 2025 orders. Siemens Energy's gas turbine backlog is nearly 70 GW, with lead times of three years or more, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' large-frame backlog is 35 GW, up from 23 GW a year earlier.

Census data shows power construction at a $186.0 billion annual rate in August, up 8.5% from a year earlier. The Edison Electric Institute projects investor-owned utility capital spending of $231.4 billion in 2027, up from $220.7 billion in 2026.

Equipment lenders are already in these deals. Stonebriar signed a $385 million lease with Atlas Energy for 240 MW of power generation equipment in January 2026. The point for originators: when turbine slots sell years ahead, the equipment decision and its public trail come long before the financing request.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing runs two ways at once. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was 54.5 in September, the ninth straight month of expansion, and its backlog index rose 4.6 points to 56.4. Real investment in industrial equipment grew at a 27.0% annual rate in the second quarter.

New factory construction is falling. Manufacturing construction spending was at a $170.7 billion annual rate in August, down 19.2% from a year earlier. So 2027 manufacturing demand looks like replacement, automation and capacity added inside existing plants, not a wave of greenfield projects. Where new plants are being built, the incentive awards and permits show up well before vendor selection. Our plant expansion guide covers where to look.

Trucking, rail and aircraft

Trucking: EPA's 2027 heavy-duty NOx standards apply to model year 2027 engines. EPA proposed amendments in July 2026, including nonconformance penalties that would let manufacturers pay a per-engine fee instead of meeting the standard, but no final rule has been issued. FTR says the pre-buy is complete. With diesel at $6.18 a gallon in mid-October, up from $3.67 a year earlier, carrier cash flow is the credit question for early 2027.

Rail: the North American fleet is tight but lease rate gains are slowing. GATX reported 98.0% utilization in the second quarter of 2026, with its lease price index up 16.8%, down from 22.3% the prior quarter. Trinity's future lease rate differential fell to +3.5% from +18.3% a year earlier.

Aircraft: lessors hold the pricing power. SMBC Aviation Capital reports lease rates for new-technology narrowbodies up 27% to 35% since 2021 and about 150 aircraft stored at lessors, down from almost 700 in early 2022. Airbus delivered 475 aircraft through August 2026 against a full-year target of about 870, so the shortage carries into 2027.

Highway and public works

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act's highway authorization was set to expire on September 30, 2026. Congress extended highway and transit authority only through December 11, 2026, the same date the government-wide continuing resolution ends. The extension doesn't restore the law's fiscal 2027 advance appropriations. A five-year bill, the BUILD America 250 Act, cleared the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee 62-2 in May but hasn't had a floor vote.

Public highway construction is still up 4.4% year over year. For road and bridge contractors planning 2027 equipment purchases, though, the funding picture is unresolved. Contract awards are the earliest firm signal. Our guide to DOT contract awards explains how to track them.

What will money cost in 2027?

More than a plan built on falling rates would assume. The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16 in a 12-0 vote. It said capital investment is robust and inflation remains elevated. Minutes released October 7 show most participants expected another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end.

The Fed's September Summary of Economic Projections puts the median federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026 and 4.1% at the end of 2027. In June, the 2027 median was 3.6%. In other words, the median now shows no net cuts next year.

Long rates have moved further. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.09% on October 16, up from 4.44% on June 30. ELFA's August economic outlook assumed a 10-year yield near 4.5% through early 2027 in its baseline, and above 5% only in its high-inflation scenario. ELFA's outlook put it plainly: "Anyone building 2027 plans around a lower cost of funds should reconsider."

Inflation is what's driving the Fed. September CPI was up 3.7% from a year earlier, driven by a 20.4% rise in energy prices, while core CPI was up 2.6%. Long yields reflect more than inflation: the FOMC minutes attribute most of the rise in longer-term Treasury yields to higher real rates and point partly to expectations of AI-related borrowing.

What it means for large-ticket lenders:

  • Spreads: SEFA respondents' 40-basis-point spread gain in 2025 came largely from falling funding costs. Expect that to reverse for lenders funding on bank lines, warehouse facilities or deposits.
  • Fixed-rate quotes: price and match-fund against Treasury yields of 4.74% (2-year) to 5.09% (10-year) as of October 16, well above where they sat at midyear.
  • Lease structures: with 100% bonus depreciation now permanent, lessors with tax capacity can pass benefits through in lease pricing. ELFA's tax commentary notes that the 100% deduction for qualified production property isn't available to lessors, so structure matters by asset type.

Who will large-ticket lenders compete with in 2027?

More capital is going after the same borrowers.

Banks are active. Banks booked a record $6.0 billion of new business in August 2026, and bank volume grew 8.7% in 2025. Regulators re-proposed the Basel III capital rules in March 2026, including a cut in the standardized risk weight for corporate exposures from 100% to 95%. As of mid-September 2026, no final rule had been issued. Some banks are also selling specialty units: BMO agreed in May 2026 to sell its Transportation Finance and Vendor Finance businesses, a US$10.6 billion portfolio, to Stonepeak, and United Community Banks sold Navitas Credit to Wafra.

Private credit and asset managers have built dedicated platforms. These lenders target the middle-market and large-ticket space directly:

Platform Backer Stated deal size Launched
Ansley Park Capital Ares $10M to $200M 2024
Empire Asset Finance Arena Investors $3M to $50M 2025
Alliance Equipment Finance Alliance Funding Group, Lightbrook; Oaktree capital partnership $5M to $50M 2025
Sixty-First Commercial Finance First Citizens, Sixth Street $5M to $100M 2025
Akrapoint Commercial Capital KKR ($350M commitment) Mid-ticket 2026

Sources: company announcements and websites. Ansley Park's launch release cited $5 million to over $100 million; the range above is from its current website. Sixty-First is a joint venture between a bank (First Citizens) and an asset manager (Sixth Street).

Established sponsor-backed lenders are growing too. Wingspire Equipment Finance, backed by Blue Owl, funded $701.3 million in 2025, up 66%. Capteris works with funds managed by Apollo. Oaktree closed a $2 billion asset-backed finance fund on October 1, 2026.

Securitization is funding them. Independent equipment finance ABS reached $9.9 billion in 2025, up about 30%, according to Brean Capital. 2026 deals include Capteris ($436.9 million), Wingspire ($407.1 million) and Barings ($1 billion). Collateral performance has been strong: KBRA's September index shows large-ticket net losses down 46 basis points from a year earlier.

The practical effect, in our view: on a clean $10 million credit, several well-funded lenders will bid, and price alone won't hold share in 2027.

What could go wrong in 2027?

  • Energy: the Strait of Hormuz disruption is ongoing. Brent futures settled at $109.86 a barrel on October 16. EIA forecasts Brent averaging $84 in 2027, but that assumes most regional output recovers by mid-2027. Fuel costs hit trucking, airlines and chemicals first.
  • Rates and credit: ELFA's acting CEO, James Cress, has said more Fed hikes would put modest upward pressure on delinquencies and losses, describing the likely result as "some chop rather than a full-blown storm."
  • AI concentration: AI is the largest single driver of 2026 volume; ELFA tied July's record month to AI spending. KBRA has published research on GPU re-leasing risk that separates an asset's useful life from its economic life. Underwrite AI-adjacent collateral on the second.
  • Tariffs: the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under IEEPA in February 2026, but Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum and copper derivatives remain, and a Section 301 tariff of 10% to 12.5% on goods from 60 economies took effect in July. A Section 232 investigation into robotics and industrial machinery is still open.
  • Policy deadlines: highway authority and government funding both expire December 11, 2026.
  • Sentiment: ELFA's October confidence index fell to 60.4 from 62.4. Only 18.2% of executives expect capex demand to rise over the next four months, down from 31.8% in September, though 81.8% expect it to hold steady and none expect a decline. Large-ticket firms are a small share of that panel, so read it as industry-wide mood.

How should large-ticket lenders plan for 2027?

  1. Budget for a 4%-plus short rate all year. The Fed's median projection has no net cuts in 2027. Build pricing and funding plans on that, and treat any cut as upside.
  2. Follow the power and data center supply chain. In our view, the equipment demand that independent and regional lenders can reach sits with the contractors, utilities and power producers around hyperscale projects, many of which look like ordinary middle-market credits.
  3. Treat manufacturing as a replacement and automation market. Existing plants are buying equipment while new plant construction falls.
  4. Underwrite AI-adjacent collateral on economic life. Re-leasing and residual assumptions matter more than headline useful life.
  5. Map your construction book to December 11. Know which borrowers depend on federal highway money before Congress decides.
  6. Win on timing. When several lenders will price the same deal, the one already talking to the borrower before a competitive process starts has the advantage. Large projects leave a public record, such as incentive awards, permits, contract awards and capex guidance, months or years before the financing request. Our market intelligence guide walks through the method.

Where Quintel fits

Quintel helps large-ticket and middle-market equipment lenders find companies whose next equipment deal is forming, from public records like contract awards, permits, incentive awards and facility projects, and ranks them against the lender's own credit box. This outlook covers the market. Quintel covers the accounts inside it.

To see which companies in these sectors fit your criteria, book a Quintel walkthrough.

Update log

  • October 18, 2026: first published, with CapEx Finance Index data through August 2026, the October confidence index, the 2026 SEFA, the September FOMC decision and minutes, and August construction data.

This page is for general information and isn't investment, credit, or tax advice. Figures are reproduced from the sources below as first published and may be revised by the publisher. Where we give a view, it's labeled as ours.

Primary sources

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