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Equipment Finance Market Data 2026: Monthly Tracker

2026 US equipment finance data: monthly ELFA volume, approvals, delinquency and losses, confidence, Fed rates, and where equipment demand is coming from.

By Alek Perak · Published

Isometric line drawing of a semi truck hauling crated industrial machines past a long data center building with rooftop cooling units and backup generators.

In short

US equipment finance is on pace for its biggest year on ELFA's record. July 2026 new business volume hit $14.3 billion, up 16.8% year to date, and ELFA forecasts over $137 billion for 2026. Credit is stable: 30+ day delinquency 1.8% and losses 0.46% in July. The Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026. AI and data center investment lead demand; factory construction and architecture billings are weak.

US equipment finance is on track for the biggest year ELFA has ever forecast. July 2026 new business volume came in at $14.3 billion, a record month, and ELFA now expects more than $137 billion in 2026. Credit is holding up. Delinquency sat at 1.8% in July and losses at 0.46%. Rates moved the other way: on September 16 the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00%.

This page pulls the numbers equipment finance lenders actually check into one place: monthly volume, credit quality, industry confidence, the rate backdrop, and which end markets are adding or losing equipment demand. Every figure links to its original source.

Last updated: September 22, 2026. Volume and credit data run through July 2026. The August CapEx Finance Index is due on September 29, and this page gets updated after each monthly release.

In short

  • New business volume: $14.3 billion in July 2026 (seasonally adjusted), up 34.3% from June and 47.3% from July 2025.
  • Year to date: volume is up 16.8% on 2025 through July.
  • Full-year outlook: ELFA's 2026 forecast is over $137 billion, "the strongest annual forecast ever recorded."
  • Credit quality: approvals at 77.4%, 30+ day delinquency at 1.8%, and a loss rate of 0.46%, which ELFA calls its lowest level in nine months.
  • Industry confidence: ELFA's Monthly Confidence Index held at 62.4 in September.
  • Rates: the federal funds target is 3.75% to 4.00% after a 12-0 vote to hike on September 16, 2026.
  • Demand leaders: AI and data center investment, plus a truck pre-buy that has now ended. Factory construction and architecture billings are the weak spots.

How big is the US equipment finance market?

The most-cited figure comes from the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation's Horizon Report. In 2023, US businesses, nonprofits, and government agencies invested $2.3 trillion in plant, equipment, and software. About 57.7% of it, or $1.34 trillion, was financed through loans, leases, and lines of credit. The same research found that 82% of US companies use some form of financing when they acquire equipment.

ELFA describes the industry as a $1.3 trillion market. A refreshed Horizon Report is scheduled for fall 2026, and this page will switch to the new figure when it's out.

The monthly numbers below come from a narrower source. ELFA's CapEx Finance Index (CFI) reports new lease and loan activity from participating ELFA member companies, "a cross section of the equipment finance sector." It isn't a census of the whole market. Use it for direction and momentum, not for market share.

Equipment finance volume in 2026, month by month

New business volume is the dollar amount of new leases and loans that CFI respondents booked in the month. The monthly change uses seasonally adjusted figures. The year-over-year change uses figures that aren't seasonally adjusted, which is how ELFA reports it.

Month New business volume vs. prior month vs. a year earlier
January 2026 $11.6B +7.8% +30.1%
February 2026 $11.0B -4.7% +14.2%
March 2026 $10.8B -1.8% +12.5%
April 2026 $10.6B -1.1% +9.6%
May 2026 $10.2B -2.3% -7.7%
June 2026 $10.5B +2.5% +17.2%
July 2026 $14.3B +34.3% +47.3%

Source: ELFA CapEx Finance Index monthly releases. Figures are as first published; ELFA revises prior seasonally adjusted months as new data comes in.

Three things stand out.

The year started at a record and drifted down for four months: January set what was then the largest one-month dollar increase in the index's history. Volume then eased every month through May, which was the only month of the year to come in below 2025.

July broke the pattern: ELFA's CEO Leigh Lytle put it plainly: "Equipment demand surged to new heights in July, on the back of AI-related investment." Small-ticket volume, which covers companies that typically finance deals under $250,000, hit $6.4 billion, "the highest single month ever recorded."

Captives drove the jump: new business at captive finance companies rose 94.1% from June. Independents were up 5.0%. Banks booked $5.4 billion, down 1.3%.

The full-year outlook has moved up with the data. ELFA's forecast was $128 billion with the May release, $129 billion with June, and $137.3 billion with July. One month doesn't make a trend, so watch whether August holds any of July's gain. That release lands on September 29.

Is equipment finance credit quality getting worse?

Not on these numbers. Delinquency and losses have stayed in a narrow band all year, and neither is trending up.

Month Approval rate 30+ day delinquency Loss rate
January 2026 76.8% 2.1% 0.46%
February 2026 77.1% 1.8% 0.55%
March 2026 77.2% 2.0% 0.62%
April 2026 77.1% 1.8% 0.54%
May 2026 79.0% 2.1% 0.49%
June 2026 79.5% 1.7% 0.54%
July 2026 77.4% 1.8% 0.46%

Source: ELFA CapEx Finance Index. Delinquency counts receivables more than 30 days past due. The loss rate is annualized actual losses as a percentage of average net receivables.

Delinquency has stayed between 1.7% and 2.1% all year. The loss rate peaked at 0.62% in March and was back to 0.46% in July. Approvals climbed to 79.5% in June, the high for the year, then fell back to 77.4% in July as volume jumped. ELFA says nearly all of that drop came from a small slice of respondents, mostly banks. Approval rates across the rest of the panel were little changed, and the industry average was flat year over year.

For an originator, the practical point is simple. Credit performance isn't forcing lenders to pull back. In our view, lenders with room in their credit box are competing for deals, not rationing them.

What are equipment finance executives expecting?

ELFA's Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) surveys industry leaders about business conditions, capex demand, access to capital, and hiring over the next four months.

Month Confidence index Expect capex demand to rise Expect better access to capital
January 2026 64.6 40.0% 32.0%
February 2026 67.6 45.8% 33.3%
March 2026 61.0 37.5% 25.0%
April 2026 54.6 10.5% 31.6%
May 2026 59.9 26.1% 17.4%
June 2026 63.7 31.8% 27.3%
July 2026 63.7 28.6% 33.3%
August 2026 62.4 26.1% 33.3%
September 2026 62.4 31.8% 27.3%

Source: ELFA Monthly Confidence Index releases.

April was the low point. Only 10.5% of respondents expected capex demand to rise, down from 45.8% in February. Sentiment recovered by June and has held in the low 60s since. The October survey will be the first full read on how industry leaders are taking the Fed's September hike.

Where is equipment demand coming from?

The CFI tells you how much is being financed. It doesn't tell you where the demand is. For that, lenders have to look at the end markets. Here's the latest national data for the sectors that drive most equipment finance volume.

End market Latest reading Direction What it means for originators
AI and data centers Data center construction at a $75.2B annual rate in July, up 57.2% year over year Strong The biggest source of new demand, from electrical and cooling contractors through to power equipment
Trucking FTR: 18,200 North American Class 8 orders in August, up 42% year over year Pre-buy over Pre-buy orders are mostly placed; 2026 build slots are close to full
Manufacturing ISM PMI at 54.6 in August, the eighth straight month of expansion Mixed Equipment spending is growing while new plant construction falls
Nonresidential construction Architecture billings at 46.6 in July; total construction down 3.8% year over year Soft Private commercial work is weak; power and public work are holding up
Agriculture USDA forecasts 2026 net farm income at $158.4B, down 2.6% Flat to down Still above the 20-year average, but livestock operations face lower income

AI and data centers

This is the story of 2026. Census Bureau data puts data center construction at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $75.2 billion in July 2026, up from $47.8 billion a year earlier. Construction spending on power was up 5.3% over the same period. Business investment in equipment grew at a 15.8% annualized rate in the first quarter and 13.6% in the second, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The capital is coming from the largest balance sheets in the country. Meta alone guided 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to $130 billion to $145 billion in its second-quarter results. Much of that hardware is funded on the buyers' own balance sheets, not through a typical equipment finance lender. The work around it is a different story: the electrical contractors, generator and switchgear suppliers, HVAC and cooling installers, and site contractors building and servicing these facilities all need equipment, and many of them look like ordinary middle-market credits.

Trucking

Class 8 truck orders surged in 2026 ahead of the EPA's 2027 emissions rules. FTR's preliminary August count was 18,200 North American net orders, down 19% from July but up 42% from August 2025. Year to date, orders are up 111%. According to FTR, most if not all surcharge-free model-year 2026 engine build slots are now likely full, and the pre-buy is largely over.

For lenders, most 2026 truck deals are already placed. The next conversation is about 2027 model-year pricing. FTR estimates fully compliant engines will carry an $8,000 to $12,000 upcharge, and noncompliance penalty costs on older designs of $6,000 to $7,000 per engine.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing is running two ways at once. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was 54.6 in August, the eighth consecutive month of expansion. Census data shows orders for core capital goods, nondefense excluding aircraft, up 10.0% year to date through July, with shipments up 8.0%.

New factory construction is heading the other way. Manufacturing construction spending was at a $169.8 billion annual rate in July, down 21.2% from a year earlier. So existing plants are buying and upgrading equipment even as fewer new ones are being built. That points originators toward machinery, automation, and replacement cycles at established manufacturers, not toward greenfield plant projects.

Nonresidential construction

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index was 46.6 in July. Any score below 50 means billings declined. AIA notes that firms with a commercial or industrial specialization "have not reported an increase in billings since four years ago this month." Total construction spending was down 3.8% from July 2025.

There's a bright spot: AIA also reported that inquiries into new projects rose again in July. Publicly funded work follows a different calendar, so contract awards are worth tracking directly. Our guide to DOT contract awards covers how.

Agriculture

USDA's Economic Research Service forecasts 2026 net farm income at $158.4 billion, down $4.3 billion or 2.6% in nominal terms, but still above its 20-year average in inflation-adjusted terms. After inflation, the decline is 5.5%. Averages hide a split. USDA expects every livestock specialization to see lower average net farm income, while the average farm business sees net cash income rise 7.1%. Credit selection within agriculture matters more this year than the sector headline.

What does the September rate hike mean for equipment finance?

The Fed held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% at every meeting from January through July 2026. On September 16 it voted 12-0 to raise the range by a quarter point, to 3.75% to 4.00%. In July, three members had already dissented in favor of a hike.

The statement's reasoning matters for equipment finance. The Fed didn't hike into a weakening economy. It said "economic activity is expanding at a solid pace" and "capital investment is robust." The reason for the hike was inflation, which "remains elevated."

What it means in practice:

  • Cost of funds: lenders funding on bank lines, warehouse facilities, or deposits will see funding costs rise with short-term rates. Fixed-rate quotes reprice from here.
  • Borrower demand: the Fed itself describes business investment as strong. A quarter point doesn't change the math on a revenue-producing machine for most borrowers, but it does add to the payment on every new deal.
  • Tax timing: under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, 100% bonus depreciation is now permanent, so the year-end push is about placing equipment in service rather than beating a phase-down. Our Section 179 guide and year-end rush breakdown cover the details.

The next FOMC meetings are October 27-28 and December 8-9, 2026.

How should lenders use this data?

Market data answers one question well: where should my team spend its time this quarter? It doesn't answer the one that fills a pipeline, which is which specific businesses are about to buy.

A practical way to use this page:

  1. Set territory and sector focus from the end-market table: weight toward the data center and power supply chain and toward established manufacturers upgrading equipment; be selective in private commercial construction and livestock agriculture.
  2. Check your credit box against the credit data: with delinquency and losses flat, appetite isn't the constraint for most lenders. Deal flow is.
  3. Reprice for the new rate range: adjust quotes and funding assumptions for the September hike before the next wave of proposals goes out.
  4. Turn sectors into named accounts: use company-level evidence, such as contract awards, permits, fleet changes, and facility projects, to find which businesses in those sectors have a deal forming. Our equipment finance market intelligence guide walks through the method.

Frequently asked questions

How big is the equipment finance industry in the US?

About $1.34 trillion. That's the amount of the $2.3 trillion invested in plant, equipment, and software in 2023 that was financed through loans, leases, and lines of credit, according to the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation. ELFA describes it as a $1.3 trillion industry.

What is the ELFA CapEx Finance Index?

The CapEx Finance Index (CFI) is ELFA's monthly report of new equipment lease and loan volume, credit approvals, delinquencies, and losses, as reported by participating member companies. ELFA releases it on the last Tuesday of each month, covering the prior month.

Is equipment finance growing in 2026?

Yes. Through July, new business volume was up 16.8% year to date, July set a monthly record at $14.3 billion, and ELFA's full-year forecast is over $137 billion, "the strongest annual forecast ever recorded."

Are equipment finance delinquencies rising?

No. The 30+ day delinquency rate stayed between 1.7% and 2.1% from January through July 2026, and it was 1.8% in July. The loss rate fell to 0.46% in July, which ELFA calls its lowest level in nine months.

How do interest rates affect equipment finance?

Higher short-term rates raise lenders' funding costs and the payment on new fixed-rate deals. The Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00% in September 2026 to bring inflation down, while describing economic activity as solid and capital investment as robust.

When is the next equipment finance data release?

The August 2026 CFI is scheduled for September 29, 2026. ELFA's October confidence index usually follows in the third week of the month, and the next FOMC decision is October 28.

How often is this page updated?

After each monthly CFI release. The update log below records every change.

Where Quintel fits

Quintel helps equipment finance lenders find businesses whose next equipment deal is forming, from public records like contract awards, permits, fleet filings, and facility projects, and ranks them against the lender's own credit box. This page covers the market. Quintel covers the accounts inside it.

If you'd like to see which companies in these sectors fit your criteria, book a Quintel walkthrough.

Update log

  • September 22, 2026: page published with CFI data through July 2026, the September MCI, and the September 16 FOMC decision.

This page is for general information and isn't investment, credit, or tax advice. Figures are reproduced from the sources below as first published and may be revised by the publisher.

Primary sources

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